The AstroStat Slog » coin toss http://hea-www.harvard.edu/AstroStat/slog Weaving together Astronomy+Statistics+Computer Science+Engineering+Intrumentation, far beyond the growing borders Fri, 09 Sep 2011 17:05:33 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4 coin toss with a twist http://hea-www.harvard.edu/AstroStat/slog/2010/coin-toss-with-a-twist/ http://hea-www.harvard.edu/AstroStat/slog/2010/coin-toss-with-a-twist/#comments Sun, 26 Dec 2010 22:27:50 +0000 vlk http://hea-www.harvard.edu/AstroStat/slog/?p=4272 Here’s a cool illustration of how to use Bayesian analysis in the limit of very little data, when inferences are necessarily dominated by the prior. The question, via Tom Moertel, is: suppose I tell you that a coin always comes up heads, and you proceed to toss it and it does come up heads — how much more do you believe me now?

He also has the answer worked out in detail.

(h/t Doug Burke)

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