Last Updated: 2009nov06

CHASC/C-BAS

Topics in Astrostatistics

Statistics 310, Harvard University
Statistics 281, University of California, Irvine

Fall/Winter/Spring 2009-2010

www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~stat310/

Instructor Prof. Meng Xiao Li
Schedule Tuesdays 11:30 AM
Location CfA 60 Garden P-226 (Tea Room)



Presentations
Alanna Connors
(with Aneta and Vinay)
08 Sep 2009
Introduction to Astronomy for Statisticians
[.pdf]
Movies:
Full Sun rotating (Hinode/XRT) [.mov]
flaring loops (Hinode/XRT) [.mov]
transit of Mercury (Hinode/XRT) [.mov]
Gamma-ray sky (Fermi) [.m4v]
Black Hole at center of Milky Way (ESO/VLT) [.m4v]
Discovery of Kuiper Belt object (APOD) [.gif]
 
Brandon Kelly (CfA)
06 Oct 2009
Hierarchical modeling of astronomical images and uncertainty in truncated data sets
Abstract: I will discuss two astronomical problems that I am working on, and the statistical issues surrounding them. The first involves the analysis of brightness images of astronomical objects with the goal of recovering an 'image' of the physical properties of these objects. Here, the primary goal is to infer from the brightness images how the physical properties of the objects are correlated and spatially distributed. The analysis is complicated by a two-level error structure, having both additive and multiplicative errors, making some of the model parameters nearly degenerate. The second problem involves density estimation of a truncated data set, where the truncation arises due to a data selection efficiency that varies with an astronomical object's brightness (e.g., fainter things are more difficult to detect). When the selection efficiency is known, the analysis is straightfoward. However, when the selection efficiency has some uncertainty in it, the likelihood function or posterior distribution can be unstable. Currently, there does not appear to be methods for accounting for uncertainty in the data selection efficiency.
Presentation [.pdf]
 
Nathan Stein, Paul Baines
20 Oct 2009
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Computer Models for Stellar Evolution (in three parts)
Nathan Stein (Dept. of Statistics, Harvard U)
Abstract: Bayesian analysis of the evolution of star clusters presents several computational challenges. Because physics-based models of stellar evolution are implemented as computer models and are not available in closed form, none of the conditional posterior distributions are traditional named distributions. Moreover, the posterior distributions of interest are high dimensional, strongly correlated, and often multimodal. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms can generate samples from these posterior distributions, but creating reasonably efficient sampling algorithms requires advanced techniques.
slides [.pdf]
Paul Baines (Dept. of Statistics, Harvard U)
Abstract: The analysis of photometric data for stellar clusters provides an example of both the statistical and computational challenges present in many Astronomy applications. Typically, properties of stellar clusters are estimated using Color-Magnitude Diagrams, whereby the observed data are often simply compared to what one would expect under a theoretical mapping from the model parameters to the observed data. This mapping is determined by a set of isochrone tables, listing the expected photometric measurements for a given set of input parameters.
To address many of the substantive questions in a coherent statistical manner, we present a flexible hierarchical Bayesian model for the analysis of stellar populations. The computation for the model is done via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the standard tool of choice for Bayesian computation. Both the complex dependence structure and the peculiar nature of the isochrone mapping, however, present a formidable challenge to standard statistical computation methods. In the spirit of the Ancillary Sufficient Interweaving Scheme (ASIS) of Yu & Meng (presented in a separate talk by Yu), we show how competing parameterizations can be constructed and combined to help overcome the weaknesses of individual schemes, and drastically improve the efficiency and reliability of the computation.
slides [.pdf]
 
 
David Stenning / Jin Xu / Alex Blocker
3 Nov 2009
David Stenning (UCI)
Automatic Classification of Sunspot Groups Using SOHO/MDI Magnetogram and White-Light Images
Abstract: Sunspot groups are classified into four types: alpha, beta, beta-gamma, and beta-gamma-detla. Currently, most sunspot group classification is done manually by experts. This is a lengthy, labor-intensive, and somewhat subjective process, necessitating the need for an automatic and accurate procedure. We intend to use SOHO/MDI magnetogram and white-light images to detect and classify sunspots into the appropriate group. The first step in this process involves the extraction of white light data that corresponds to the magnetogram images we have available. I will discuss the progress I have made so far and address questions regarding the automation of the extraction routine.
presentation slides [.pdf]
 
Jin Xu (UCI)
Solar DEMs
Abstract: The wavelength distribution of light emitted from different regions of the sun contains clues as to how the composition and temperature of the sun varies across its surface. Decoding this information requires sophisticated statistical techniques and detailed quantum physical calculations. Data consists of images of the sun that record its intensity in each of a number of wavelength bands. This "talk" will consist of a conversation about how best to formulate the model to leverage both the data and quantum physics to best understand composition and temperature images of the sun.
presentation slides [.pdf]
 
Alex Blocker (HU)
Event Detection in Time Series Databases with Robust Wavelet Model
presentation slides [.pdf]
 
 
Paul Baines, Yaming Yu
17 Nov 2009
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Computer Models for Stellar Evolution (part two)
Paul Baines (Dept. of Statistics, Harvard U)
contd.
 
Yaming Yu (Dept. of Statistics, UCI)
Abstract: The importance of a good parameterization for efficient MCMC implementation has been repeatedly emphasized in the literature. For a broad class of multi-level models, there exist two well-known competing parameterizations: the centered parameterization and the non- centered parameterization. We describe a surprisingly general and powerful strategy for boosting MCMC efficiency by simply interweaving ---but not alternating---the two parameterizations. A Poisson time series model for detecting changes in source intensity of photon counts is used to illustrate the effectiveness of this strategy.
 
Victoria Liublinska, Jin Xu
1 Dec 2009
Solar and Stellar DEMs
 
Nathan Stein, Jing Liu, Alanna Connors, David van Dyk
15 Dec 2009
LIRA
 
 
 
Fall/Winter 2004-2005
Siemiginowska, A. / Connors, A. / Kashyap, V. / Zezas, A. / Devor, J. / Drake, J. / Kolaczyk, E. / Izem, R. / Kang, H. / Yu, Y. / van Dyk, D.
Fall/Winter 2005-2006
van Dyk, D. / Ratner, M. / Jin, J. / Park, T. / CCW / Zezas, A. / Hong, J. / Siemiginowska, A. & Kashyap, V. / Meng, X.-L.
Fall/Winter 2006-2007
Lee, H. / Connors, A. / Protopapas, P. / McDowell, J., / Izem, R. / Blondin, S. / Lee, H. / Zezas, A., & Lee, H. / Liu, J.C. / van Dyk, D. / Rice, J.
Fall/Winter 2007-2008
Connors, A., & Protopapas, P. / Steiner, J. / Baines, P. / Zezas, A. / Aldcroft, T.
Fall/Winter 2008-2009
H. Lee / A. Connors, B. Kelly, & P. Protopapas / P. Baines / A. Blocker / J. Hong / H. Chernoff / Z. Li / L. Zhu (Feb) / A. Connors (Pt.1) / A. Connors (Pt.2) / L. Zhu (Mar) / E. Kolaczyk / V. Liublinska / N. Stein
Fall/Winter 2009-2010
A.Connors / B.Kelly / N.Stein, P.Baines / D.Stenning / J. Xu / A.Blocker / P.Baines, Y.Yu / V.Liublinska, J.Xu / N.Stein, J.Liu, A.Connors, D.van Dyk /

CHASC